A Machine Learning-Based Study on the Demand for Community Elderly Care Services in Central Urban Areas of Major Chinese Cities

China’s population is aging rapidly, with a large proportion of elderly individuals “aging in place”. In central areas of large cities, the amount of community and home-based elderly care services provided by the government and for-profit organizations are insufficient to meet the demands of these “aging in place” elderly. Taking the core area of Beijing as the spatial scope, this empirical study collects the demand on services of the main types of elderly residents in community and home-based dwelling through questionnaires (n = 242) and employs a mixed-methods approach for analysis. Descriptive statistics and exploratory factor analysis are used to determine the categories and levels of those demands, and machine learning methods (random forest regression model) are used to calculate the importance of various influencing factors (features of the elderly and subdistricts’ built environment) on them. It is shown that elderly residents have a higher demand for psychological and physical condition maintenance services (mean = 3.40), and a lower demand for reconciliation and rights defense services (mean = 3.08). The results also show that the built environment factors are very important for the elderly on choosing demands, especially mean distance of CECSs (community elderly care stations) to downtown landmarks and main roads in subdistricts, and characteristics of CECS. The elderly’s own features also have a relatively important impact, especially their living arrangements, caregivers, and occupations before retirement. This study applies machine learning techniques to sociological survey analysis, helping to understand the intensity of elderly people’s demand for various community and home-based elderly care services. It provides a reference for the allocation of such service resources.