Exploring the determinants of renewable energy consumption in Nigeria: an ARDL analysis from 1990–2022

Purpose This study aims to investigate the determinants of renewable energy consumption (REC) in Nigeria from 1990 to 2022, focusing on economic, environmental and infrastructural factors. Using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, the analysis examined variables such as real gross domestic product (GDP), urbanisation, electricity consumption, access to electricity, agricultural value-added and CO2 emissions. Design/methodology/approach This study employs annual data sourced from the World Development Indicators (WDI) database. An ARDL model was applied to assess both the short- and long-term relationships between REC and its determinants. Findings The results reveal that real GDP and urbanisation negatively affect REC, while agricultural value-added positively contributes despite inefficiencies. The dominance of non-renewable energy in electricity consumption and access highlights the need for renewable energy integration. The reliability of the ARDL model was confirmed using diagnostic tests. Research limitations/implications This study is limited to macroeconomic variables and national-level data, suggesting the need for future research to explore sector-specific dynamics, off-grid systems, green financing, and social acceptance to advance renewable energy transitions in Nigeria. Practical implications The study recommends prioritising investments in solar, wind, and hydropower technologies, expanding rural electrification through off-grid systems and incentivising private sector participation. Governance reforms and targeted support for agriculture are critical for addressing inefficiencies and promoting the adoption of renewable energy. Originality/value This study provides a comprehensive analysis of REC determinants in Nigeria, offering actionable insights for policy and sustainable energy planning.