Analysis of the Influencing Factors and Trade Potential of Agricultural Trade between China and RCEP Member Countries—Based on an Extended Gravity Model

农产品是中国与RCEP成员国贸易往来的重要商品之一。在经济全球化的背景下，中国农产品贸易正面临新的机遇与挑战。本文基于扩展的贸易引力模型，选取2005~2020年中国与RCEP成员国的跨国面板数据，深入分析影响农产品贸易进出口的关键因素，并测算近16年来中国与RCEP成员国在农产品进口方面的贸易潜力。研究结果表明，两国的国内生产总值、进口国人口规模、是否具有共同边界或共同语言，以及是否加入WTO等因素均显著促进贸易往来，而空间距离对农产品进口产生抑制作用。当前，中国与RCEP成员国的农产品贸易处于潜力开拓阶段，双边经贸关系仍有较大提升空间。基于此，中国应充分理解并运用RCEP规则，加快农产品贸易合作升级，优化外贸政策，以释放更多贸易潜力。Agricultural products constitute an essential component of trade exchanges between China and the member countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). In the context of economic globalization, China’s agricultural trade is encountering both new opportunities and challenges. Utilizing an extended gravity model and drawing on cross-national panel data from 2005 to 2020, this study conducts a comprehensive analysis of the key factors influencing the import and export of agricultural products. Additionally, it estimates China’s agricultural import trade potential with RCEP member countries over the past 16 years. The empirical findings indicate that the gross domestic product (GDP) of both trading countries, the population size of the importing country, the presence of a shared border or common language, and membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) all significantly facilitate trade flows. Conversely, geographical distance exerts an inhibiting effect on agricultural imports. At present, China’s agricultural trade with RCEP member countries remains in a phase of potential expansion, with substantial room for further enhancement of bilateral economic and trade relations. Accordingly, China should fully comprehend and effectively leverage RCEP regulations, accelerate the advancement of agricultural trade cooperation, and refine foreign trade policies to unlock greater trade potential.