Time-Varying Causality Impact of Global Economic Conditions Index on Remittances in Lebanon

Abstract Using the recently developed Global Economic Conditions Index, a time-varying Granger causality approach, as well as relying on the monthly dataset from January 2002 to June 2021, we investigate both symmetric and asymmetric causality between the Global Economic Condition Index and remittances in Lebanon, a small open economy significantly reliant on remittances. Rather than being asymmetric, we find a statistically significant, symmetric, time-varying causality between the Global Economic Conditions Index and remittances. Several robustness tests validate our findings. Given this finding, we propose relevant policy recommendations.