Climate change impact on resources in the MENA region: a systematic and critical review

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are known for their arid climate and water scarcity challenges due to climate change, high temperature, population growth, urbanization, over-extraction of groundwater, political instability, social factors and water mismanagement. The multifaceted impacts of climate change on resources with a particular reference to the water, energy and food (WEF) nexus in the MENA countries are critically reviewed. Increasing population pressure (estimated 724 million by 2050) leads to higher demands on energy, especially electricity (an increase of 416 % from 1990 to 2022.), reaching 1060 TWh in 2020 due to urbanization and industry activities. This contributes to climate change, leading to higher regional temperatures in in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Iran, which has risen by 1.2 °C since 1970. It is estimated that by 2050, temperature increases in MENA countries range from 1.5 to 3 °C. This in turn exacerbates drought, causing severe heatwaves and water scarcity, particularly in Egypt, Yemen, Syria and Sudan, affecting food production and security. The nexus concept highlights the interconnected challenges of water, energy and food in the MENA region amid climate change, where alterations in one element reverberate through the others. Adapting to this dynamic scenario involves solutions such as water desalination, where energy generated by renewable sources such as solar and wind as well as hybrid systems combining solar and fossil fuels offers a versatile solution; i.e., solar energy is utilized during the day, while fossil fuels provide backup power during periods of low sunlight or high demand. • Climate change impacts for MENA countries with a high capita increase are complex. • The region has witnessed a substantial upswing in energy demand for electricity. • Droughts, heatwaves and water scarcity reduces agricultural yields in Egypt. • Egypt, Yemen and Jordan suffer from precipitation decrease by up to 20 % until 2050. • Desalination, solar energy, climate-resilient crops help sustainable development.