Towards a sustainable supply of graphite: a geological way forward

The global graphite market is set to expand rapidly, driven by the energy transition to electric vehicles in transportation and electric arc furnaces in steelmaking. The worldwide consumption of graphite uses both synthetic ( c. 60%) and natural ( c. 40%) graphite. Current supply risk for both natural and synthetic graphite comes from the high production concentration in China and a low end-of-life recycling input rate. Compared with natural graphite, synthetic graphite is subject to higher supply risk owing to its by-product dependency on needle coke production from petroleum. Future additional supply risk of graphite stems from uncertain energy transition demand predictions, ranging from a three- to seven-fold expansion by 2040 based on the rate of the energy transition, and a high concentration of end-use of up to c. 80% in Li-ion batteries. To reduce future supply risk of graphite in the production stage, increasing mining activities outside of China, especially in Africa, together with potential developments in recycling of spent Li-ion batteries, will be vital. In the manufacturing stage, advances in purification and modification of natural graphite to close the quality gap between the natural and synthetic graphite anode material are anticipated to decrease the share of synthetic graphite in use over time. The future resilience of the graphite supply chain will largely depend on the mining of natural graphite, particularly flake graphite for the use in Li-ion batteries. The potential of exploiting flake graphite resources is remarkable, as global flake graphite resources are an order of magnitude larger than predicted cumulative demand until 2050 and are distributed across the continents, mostly in crystalline metamorphic basement. Discovering new natural flake graphite resources to diversify and increase the supply, however, requires robust genetic models to guide mineral exploration. There is a significant knowledge gap in understanding the mineral system of flake graphite deposits. The nature and role of fluids in the transport and concentration of carbon remains poorly understood. Identifying deformational structures and alteration halos in the graphite mineral system will be essential to reconstruct the fluid pathways and constrain the structural-chemical traps. Research on world-class natural graphite deposits will be key to fill this knowledge gap and drive towards a sustainable supply of graphite.