Projection of Areas Susceptible to Water Erosion in the Submiddle São Francisco Watershed (2021-2040)

Objective: The present study aims to analyze the behavior of water erosion in the watershed of the Sub-middle São Francisco, with the objective of identifying areas susceptible to water erosion in the period from 2021 to 2040, under different climate change scenarios. Theoretical Framework: The study is based on the concept of susceptibility to water erosion and the theory of ecological niche modeling, applied using the Maximum Entropy method. Method: The methodology adopted in this research involves the use of the Maximum Entropy method combined with a set of environmental predictors for two contrasting climate change scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic). Results and Discussion: The results obtained in the current context revealed a predominance of the low class (54.3%), followed by the moderate class (27.2%), high (14%), and very high (4%). This panorama is expected to prevail in the future; however, significant increases were observed in the moderate and very high classes in both scenarios, which may lead to severe ecosystem degradation processes. Research Implications: The practical and theoretical implications of this research are discussed, providing insights into the behavior of water erosion until 2040. The results presented can support future water erosion studies and assist in decision-making for environmental and territorial planning. Originality/Value: This study contributes to the literature by providing susceptibility models for erosion under different climatic and temporal scenarios. Its relevance is highlighted by the approach to future projections in the Sub-middle São Francisco, a region marked by high socio-environmental vulnerability.