Trends and Variability of Drought in Northern South America Between 1982 and 2022

Abstract The current drought situation seriously threatens global food and water security. To assess the risks associated with drought, we conducted an investigation using the Standardized Precipitation Index and Soil Moisture Anomaly Index to analyze the intramonthly variability of meteorological and agricultural drought in Northern South America from 1982 to 2022. The monthly precipitation and soil moisture changes were analyzed using satellite data from the Climate Hazards Group Infra-Red Precipitation with Stations and the global dataset for the fifth generation of European ReAnalysis land component. This study shows that the regions in our study domain have, on average, encountered 80 seasonal drought episodes. A noteworthy percentage of these droughts, ranging from 20 to 36%, were severe, while 5–15% were categorized as extreme. Remarkably, the coastal zones of Colombia and Venezuela are more prone to droughts from January to March. As for agricultural droughts, we estimate that there were approximately 94 events, with extreme ones accounting for 13–34%. Notably, February and March saw the highest severity and extent of agricultural droughts. Over the past four decades, significant trends in drought have been observed within the study region. These trends are characterized by a marked reduction in precipitation during the months of February and September, with mean decreases of 0.43 mm/month and 1.43 mm/month, respectively. Furthermore, the Orinoco region has experienced more pronounced drought-related impacts during the latter months, particularly in February, which raises concerns regarding agricultural sustainability and productivity. This study found that Colombia and Venezuela’s coastal zones experienced moderate to severe meteorological events from January to March. Additionally, the Magdalena basin region in Colombia had frequent agricultural droughts in February.