Some issues of forecasting the state of the security environment in Ukraine considering the impact of the activities of the national police on the level of offenses

The article presents an analysis of the security situation in Ukraine at the end of 2024 and the impact on this situation of several factors that are the determining components of the state of security in the country. Attention is drawn to the fact that the complexity of the situation in the country is a consequence of the existence of not only external factors – the implementation of full-scale aggression by the Russian Federation, but also internal factors, including the situation in the criminal sphere. The importance of the presented research material lies in determining the conditions necessary for fulfilling the tasks of the national security strategy, the ability of the state to resist not only external, but also internal threats. An objective analysis and assessment of the factors specified in the study, which took place not only in 2024, but also throughout the entire armed aggression of the Russian Federation against our state and on which the security situation in the country depends, makes it possible to predict with a significant degree of probability for 2025 such important trends for our society as the dynamics of the crime situation, types of offenses on which law enforcement agencies should primarily focus their attention. The study focuses on the importance of the activities of the National Police as an important component of the law enforcement system of Ukraine, the role of the National Police in ensuring the proper state of the security environment in the state. The purpose of the article is precisely to carry out a current analysis of the state of national security, to identify those of its components that currently cause concern and which, in the absence of effective measures by the National Police, will increase their negative impact. The material presented in the article, the review and analysis of the state of the security environment in the state, make it possible to conclude that the security situation existing in society requires a more active influence on these processes by the law enforcement structures of the Ministry of Internal Affairs system, increasing the efficiency of the work of the aforementioned state institutions and their further interaction. Keywords: National Police of Ukraine, national security, security situation, forecasting, identification of factors, crime rate, full-scale invasion, martial law.