Analysis of Vulnerability of the Population of the Sary-Dzhas Natural Plague Focus in Kyrgyzstan

The aim of the work was to assess the forecast of epidemiological vulnerability of the population of the Sary-Dzhas natural plague focus based on the current data on the population size, pasture area and development of tourism. Materials and methods . To calculate the index of epidemiological danger, risk and vulnerability, we used information from the archive of Karakol Anti-Plague Department, statistical data on the population size, pasture areas, tourism and hunting zones obtained from official sources. Results and discussion . Epizootics of plague among animal carriers and vectors in 2016–2023 were detected in sectors with previously predicted high vulnerability of the population. The basins of the Koolyu and Ottuk rivers, the upper (Atazhailoo tract) and lower reaches of the Enylchek river (the confluence with the Sary-Dzhas river) remain the most dangerous territories of the Sary-Dzhas natural focus in the epidemiological sense, as is stated in the forecast. The index of epidemiological risk in the territory of the Sary-Dzhas focus in 2024 significantly exceeds the predicted values in 14 out of 40 sectors due to the intensive development of tourism. The increase in the epidemiological vulnerability values is uneven: the maximum is in the central part and to a lesser extent in the northeastern and northwestern parts of the focus. In 2024, part of the Sary-Dzhas territory gained a high level of epidemiological vulnerability; the area with values above 50 % is currently two times larger than in 2016. On the half of the studied territory, the vulnerability index coincides with the predicted one; this group includes all sectors with indexes above 50 %. Thus, our calculations confirm the 2020-forecast and are consistent with the theory of landscape localization of plague micro-foci, typical of high-mountain marmot foci. The methodology for calculating epidemiological vulnerability can be used to analyze and forecast the epidemiological situation in natural plague foci areas.