Multi-Temporal Land Use and Land Cover Change Detection in Northern Nigeria's Frontline States: Geospatial Insights for Sustainable Development and Climate Adaptation

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes driven by anthropogenic activities are key contributors to local, regional, and global environmental transformations. Understanding and monitoring these changes have become essential for addressing environmental challenges. This study analyzed LULC dynamics from 1984 to 2022 in the frontline states of Northern Nigeria using remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Supervised classification algorithms were applied to satellite imagery, achieving an overall classification accuracy of 86.83%. The findings revealed significant trends: dense vegetation, water bodies, and bare land showed marked declines, while light vegetation and built-up areas exhibited substantial growth over the study period. The long-term annual rate of change for dense vegetation decreased from 0.77% ha⁻¹ to 6.25% ha⁻¹ (a reduction of 58% to 4.84%), and water bodies declined from 0.00% ha⁻¹ to 1.47% ha⁻¹. Conversely, light vegetation increased from 0.32% ha⁻¹ to 2.37% ha⁻¹, bare land from 7.8% ha⁻¹ to 6.12% ha⁻¹, and built-up areas from 0.93% ha⁻¹ to 3.36% ha⁻¹. A post-classification comparison using transition matrices revealed that approximately 53.36% of dense vegetation in 1984 transitioned to light vegetation by 2022. Additionally, 50.15% of bare land was converted to light vegetation, while 0.63% of light vegetation was transformed into built-up areas during the same period. These results offer reliable data on the extent and rate of LULC changes in Northern Nigeria, providing valuable insights for land management and policy formulation aimed at sustainable natural resource use. The study underscores the need for integrating these findings into regional planning and decision-making. Future research is recommended to explore the socio-economic and spatial drivers of LULC changes between 1984 and 2022 to better inform sustainable management strategies in Northern Nigeria and similar regions. The Nigerian government should develop and implement sustainable land-use plans that balance economic development with environmental conservation and also establish a robust environmental monitoring system to track land-use changes and enforce regulations.