STRATEGIC ADAPTATION OF AGRICULTURAL REGIONS TO EXTERNAL MARKET CHANGES

In the context of an increasingly acute foreign economic agenda, issues related to the country’s food security are a priority. Their solution largely lies in the search for effective models for the development of agro-industrial sectors of the regional economy. In this regard, studies that reveal the features of the macroeconomic stability of regional economic systems with a high level of agricultural specialization are of particular interest and are characterized by an increased level of relevance. The study was conducted based on data for 2022, revealing the features of the response of agro-industrial regions of Volga Federal District to systemic changes in the external environment. The methodological basis is a dichotomous analysis of regional shock resistance within the framework of its study through the prism of two key components: vulnerability and the effectiveness of economic recovery. The results of testing the author’s approaches are expressed in the developed strategic matrix of resilience of the subjects of Volga Federal District, demonstrating differentiated susceptibility of regional economic systems specializing in the agricultural sector to perturbations in external markets. According to the results of the study, it was found that the regions with a low level of risk of sustainable economic development include the Republic of Bashkortostan and Saratov region. With a moderate level of risk - the Republic of Tatarstan. Group 3, with an increased level of uncertainty, includes Penza and Orenburg regions. Finally, Samara region, characterized by a high level of import dependence against the background of moderate values in the sphere of recovery potential, is classified as high risk. The obtained results indicate that the overwhelming majority of regions of the Volga Federal District with an agro-industrial profile are in the zone of increased risk of resilience. Given their high level in the sphere of providing the country with crop products, violation of the parameters of their economic development creates threats to food security of Russia in the event of emerging trajectories of violation of their sustainable development. Based on the findings, priorities of state policy in the sphere of measures to support these subjects of Volga Federal District were determined in order to maintain economic growth trajectories and mitigate the risks of development of the country’s agro-industrial regions.