Quantifying ecosystem service values amid land use and land cover transformation in the Upper Awash River Basin: A path toward climate change mitigation

ABSTRACT This study investigated the consequence of changes in land use and land cover (LULC) on ecosystem service values (ESVs) in Ethiopia's Upper Awash River Basin from 1993 to 2023. ArcGIS and remote sensing were used to map changes in LULC and ESV, providing spatial analysis and precise data on LULC over time. This study calculated the shifts in ESVs and performed sensitivity analyses using LULC datasets collected during fieldwork and standard economic methods. The results revealed a total decrease of US$ 227.54 million (13.14%) in ESVs over the study period, with the most significant decline of US$ 135.56 million (7.83%) occurring between 2013 and 2023 due to the expansion of croplands and built-up areas. Forests, shrublands, and wetlands experienced a decrease in ESVs, whereas cropland ecosystem services increased. Provisioning environmental services grew by $37.25 million while regulating ecosystem services decreased by $194.58 million. The sensitivity coefficient indicated that the ESV was inelastic to the ESVs coefficient. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, environmental agencies, land management authorities, and local communities in sustainable land use practices, and improving the well-being of local communities in the basin.