Modeling maize-based carrying capacities and population pressure in prehispanic central Panama

Few realms of archaeological research are as fraught with potential error as the study of prehistoric population pressure. Much of this error stems from the challenges involved in making prehistoric population and carrying capacity estimates, both of which are conceptually complex and entail numerous assumptions and relatively wide error ranges. But overcoming these challenges is well worth the effort, as it allows archaeologists to push beyond traditional lines of inquiry into the diverse range of ways that population pressure can impact human societal development. Leaving aside for the moment the many important issues involved in making prehistoric population estimates (issues that have been addressed elsewhere in the archaeological literature), this paper builds on the conceptual advancements that have been made in the anthropological literature on estimating carrying capacities and puts them to use in the analytical realm. A model is developed for estimating maize-based carrying capacities in prehispanic central Panama, which is then used to assess population pressure among early complex societies. This assessment reveals patterns that run counter to traditional models of population pressure and complex society development and urge further analytical exploration. The model developed here for estimating maize productivity can be adapted and applied to other regions, especially those where data on prehistoric maize productivity (such as prehistoric cob lengths) is limited or non-existent. • A model is developed for estimating maize-based carrying capacities. • This model accounts for different consumption and production scenarios. • This model accounts for long-term changes in maize's productivity. • This model is used to assess population pressure in central Panama. • This model is adaptable for use in other regions.