Integrated modeling of socioeconomic and hydrological factors for adaptive drought response in the Kowsar Dam basin, Iran

The agricultural sector faces major challenges from increasing droughts and declining water resources, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. The present study aims to simulate the effects of drought on socioeconomic, hydrological, and adaptive behavioral parameters at the basin level to identify drought-vulnerable areas and improve agricultural sector management under drought conditions. This study integrates water evaluation and planning, positive mathematical programming, and theory of planned behavior models to analyze hydrological, socioeconomic, and behavioral systems, respectively, under drought scenarios. To implement this integrated model, the Kowsar Dam basin in Iran was selected as the study area. The results showed that droughts significantly reduce crop yields, increase unmet water demand, alter cultivation patterns, and lower farmers’ profits, all driven by reduced rainfall, higher temperatures, and shrinking water resources. Attitudes, norms, and perceived control explained 74.1% of behavioral intention and 58.6% of farmers’ drought responses. Therefore, influencing psychological parameters can help foster the acceptance of drought adaptation strategies at the basin level. In conclusion, this integrated framework serves as a valuable tool for identifying drought-vulnerable areas and designing effective policies and interventions for drought management.