Mapping the suitability of North Africa for green hydrogen production: an application of a multi-criteria spatial decision support system combining GIS and AHP for Tunisia

Abstract Background In the energy transition framework towards decarbonization, green hydrogen, obtained through water electrolysis powered by renewable energy, is gaining importance. In order to pave the way to its production and trade, it is required to assess its main advantages and challenges, which are not only energy-related but involve also techno-economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical aspects. In line with this, the current article aims to provide a Multi-criteria Spatial Decision Support System to investigate the suitability of North African countries with respect to the production of solar-based hydrogen and its potential trade, and to apply it to Tunisia, as one of the most promising countries for becoming a competitive hydrogen exporting leader. Combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the Geographical Information System, this study focuses on evaluating the land suitability for solar hydrogen production at a country level, serving as the foundation for a methodology applicable across the entire North African region. After defining ten different criteria, these are spatially analysed and then prioritized according to different experts’ preferences, so that a final suitability map is obtained. The added value of the study is the inclusion of social and geopolitical criteria in this kind of assessments, often focused on techno-economic parameters alone. Results The suitability map allows to classify the majority of the Tunisian areas as moderately or highly suitable, even if the most favourable areas in terms of availability of resources are often negatively influenced by the geopolitical or economic assessment. The sensitivity analysis has also proved the high suitability of Tunisia, with no areas assessed as very low suitable even if the different criteria are extremized. Conclusions Among the several influencing factors addressing the suitability for green hydrogen uptake, this article makes it possible to explore the social and geopolitical externalities, as well as the environmental and techno-economic dimensions. Even if stakeholders’ preferences affect the final results, the sensitivity analysis makes it possible to test their robustness. Supporting the adoption of new clean technologies towards the carbon-neutrality target, the methodological framework could be applied for other countries and also tailored on other specific technological pathways.