Transformation of deterrence in the context of the russian-ukrainian war: rethinking the concept through Ukraine’s emergence as a middle power

The article discusses the current challenges to understanding and applying the concept of deterrence in the context of the fluid global security environment of today. The authors argue that, similar to the Cold War period, the bipolar rivalry between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China is once again raising the issue of strategic deterrence, but complicates its effective application. In particular, the emergence of new centers of power, the dilution of US hegemony and the multipolarity of the international system undermine traditional mechanisms of American deterrence, including escalatory dominance, mutually assured destruction and extended deterrence. The regional aspect of the study emphasizes the complex character of the European security order, especially in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war. By analyzing the approaches of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union, the authors maintain that current strategies have failed to effectively prevent Russian aggression and that they also seem to be of little use in the long run. At the same time, the concept of deterrence by supplying weapons to Ukraine has not yet received any proper theoretical elaboration, let alone scientifically sound rethinking. The article emphasizes the need to revise the existing approaches to deterrence, in particular through integrated deterrence, which is promising in terms of Ukraine’s future role as a middle power in the European security order.