Investigating the Impact of Accessibility on Internal Migration Flows in Italy Through the Calibration of Multiple Linear Regression Models

This study estimates the impact of some socio-economic, real estate, and accessibility factors on the demographic change of the Italian provinces. Migration rates were analysed for one hundred and thirteen provincial capitals, or former provincial capitals, and their territories, and the correlation between them and various socio-economic and accessibility variables was studied. The data analysis showed significant heterogeneity between the different territorial areas of the country, highlighting the well-known phenomenon of migration from southern to northern regions. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether and to what extent accessibility variables have a direct influence on internal migration phenomena, in addition to the other socio-economic variables involved. Multiple linear regression models were specified and calibrated to correlate migration rates with various socio-economic and accessibility variables. The results show a non-negligible impact of certain accessibility variables on the migration phenomenon and suggest the need to work on the infrastructure front to rebalance the country’s demographic and socio-economic structure.