A Study on the Measurement and Prediction of Airport Carbon Emissions Under the Perspective of Carbon Peak

Against the dual-carbon background, civil aviation is in urgent need of low-carbon and green transformation. Carbon emissions from airports are one of the main environmental concerns in civil aviation, so the early realization of airport carbon peak and carbon neutrality will help accelerate the construction of green civil aviation and assist in the low-carbon transformation and upgrading of civil aviation. According to research, the terminal building, aircraft, and ramp area are the main sources of airport carbon emissions. Taking Harbin Taiping International Airport as an example, this study first measured the carbon emissions from the terminal building and ramp area of the airport in the past five years by using the emission factor method; then, we measured the carbon emissions from aircraft in the airport in the past five years by using the ICAO method and finally predicted the trend of carbon emissions from aircraft and the possibility of reaching the peak carbon emissions of the airport in the coming years by using scenario analysis and the Monte Carlo simulation method. The results show that the total carbon emissions of Harbin Taiping International Airport will be 458,800 tonnes in 2023 and up to 581,100 tonnes in 2035; under the scenarios of green development and technological innovation, the airport’s carbon emissions can reach their peak by 2035, which will be lower and reached earlier under the scenario of technological innovation; the airport can improve energy use efficiency, increase the utilization of renewable energy sources, establish a carbon emission monitoring system, and actively participate in the market for carbon emission monitoring systems. Airports can systematically build a development path for airport carbon peaking by improving energy efficiency, increasing the utilization rate of renewable energy, establishing a carbon emission monitoring system, actively participating in carbon trading in the market, etc., so as to reduce carbon emissions from airports and promote the transformation and upgrading of civil aviation into a green and low-carbon sector.