VULNERABILITY OF THE CHICKEN MEAT MARKET TO CHANGES IN THE PRICE OF FEED GRAINS

In the past three decades, the chicken (Gallus gallus domesticus L.) meat market has been favored by the commercial liberation established in the Free Trade Agreement, since the growth in production of this product was largely due to the supply of inputs used to feed cattle, such as maize and soybeans, based on imports at low costs from the USA. This situation could be reversed in the future, since the dependence on grains determines if the cattle markets are vulnerable to international exogenous changes. The aim of this investigation was to determine the effects of an increase in the price of feed grains on the chicken meat market in Mexico using a spatial equilibrium model for 2021. Results indicate that, in the year of analysis, chicken meat production, imports, and consumption were 3669 and 4419 thousand Mg, respectively. A 60 % increase in the price of feed grains would have considerable effects on the chicken meat market, since production would decrease by 390 thousand Mg and imports would increase by 363 thousand Mg. Due to these changes, consumption would only decrease by 27 thousand Mg, an expected result in a market open to international trade such as chicken meat. Due to the negative effects on the production and increase in imports, it is recommended for the government to take all necessary measures to reduce the dependence on feed grains demanded by the livestock sector, since an increase in the international price would make it difficult to guarantee the supply of such inputs.