Diversified physical and virtual water flows in affecting water scarcity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

China’s most water-scarce region, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) Urban water management faces challenges in integrating physical and virtual water to address the increasing water scarcity. This study employs the multi-regional input-output framework to investigate the characteristics of physical and virtual water networks in the BTH region from 2007 to 2017, aiming to quantitatively reveal the impacts of virtual water trade, transferred water, and unconventional water on regional water stress. Physical water use in the BTH region decreased slightly from 26.0 km 3 to 25.0 km 3 over the decade, with agricultural exports reducing it by 19.5 %. However, the internal water footprint increased, reflecting strategies that redirected exports towards internal consumption to achieve water savings. Concurrently, the region’s virtual water consumption also decreased from 34.3 km 3 to 27.6 km 3 , indicating China’s substantial improvement in water-use efficiency. Overall, virtual water trade has played a crucial role in alleviating the BTH’s water stress, however, its effectiveness has diminished from 94.9 % to 64.3 %. The potential benefits of transferred and unconventional water supplies were evident, contributing 20.8 % and 14.9 % in 2017, respectively. In contrast, Hebei Province experienced extreme water stress due to physical and virtual water exports. This study highlights the importance of integrating virtual water consideration into urban water management and carefully assessing alternative water sources to mitigate negative consequences for all stakeholders. • Virtual water trade’s role in reducing BTH’s water stress drops from 94.9 % to 64.3 %. • Contributions from transferred and unconventional water rise to 20.8 % and 14.9 %. • Directing agricultural exports to internal consumption lowers physical water use. • Hebei faces extreme water stress due to net physical and virtual water exports.