A meta-analytic structural equation analysis of the Gateway Belief Model: highlighting scientific consensus increases support for public action on climate change

The Gateway Belief Model (GBM) posits that correcting influential misperceptions about the scientific consensus on climate change acts as a ‘gateway’ to subsequent smaller changes in private cognitions and emotions that people hold about the issue, which, in turn, jointly predict support for public action. To date, there has been no meta-analytical assessment of the full GBM as theorized. Accordingly, we systematically reviewed the literature and leveraged advances in meta-analytic structural equation modeling (MASEM) to estimate the downstream impact of consensus messaging on public support for climate action. Based on nine studies that met the inclusion criteria ( N = 12 975), we find that the GBM fits the data well and that communicating the scientific consensus has significant meta-analytic downstream effects, including increases in the belief that climate change is happening, human-caused, how much people worry about the issue, and, crucially, support for public action. We discuss implications for future research. • Perceived scientific consensus (PSA) acts as a key gateway belief to support for action. • We conducted a meta-analytic structural equation model of the GBM. • Changes in perceived consensus predict changes in other climate beliefs and emotions. • PSA increases support for action directly and indirectly via key beliefs. • Interactions suggest that the effect was stronger for conservatives than liberals.