The Role of Environmental Changes in the Development of the Agricultural Economy During Pre-Aksumite and Aksumite Cultures

Abstract The northern highlands of Ethiopia and Eritrea (NHE) hosted the earliest agricultural and urban societies in sub-Saharan Africa: the Pre-Aksumite and Aksumite cultures. However, the role of environmental shifts in the transition from hunting-gathering to agriculture and state formation remains unclear. This study reviews 95 peer-reviewed articles on paleoenvironmental data from the NHE and adjacent regions (6000–1000 BP), integrating recent archaeobotanical and archaeological findings. We draw three main conclusions: (1) Paleoenvironmental conditions during this transition were highly variable, with differing tempos and magnitudes of change across the region. (2) The emergence of early agriculture and Pre-Aksumite societies in the NHE was not directly driven by environmental changes around 3500 BP. Instead, social dynamics and interactions among local human groups provided a more plausible explanation. (3) The NHE highlands experienced a shift towards higher humidity during early Aksumite period, specifically between 2500 and 2000 BP and 1500 and 1000 BP. This climatic shift likely enhanced agricultural productivity, facilitating food surpluses that underpinned the expansion of the Aksumite Kingdom. These results suggest that while early agriculture was culturally driven, later state development was more closely tied to environmental factors. To understand the interplay between environmental and socio-cultural factors in the NHE, we recommended interdisciplinary approach integrating, paleoenvironmental, archaeological, and archaeobotanical and genetic studies. This will enhance data resolution, mitigate geographical biases, and refine our understanding of complex societies in the Horn of Africa.