Reshaping regional carbon productivity in the Pearl River Delta megaregion: Input-output-based multi-objective optimization to explore low-carbon industrial transitions

The Pearl River Delta (PRD) megaregion has emerged as China's foremost polycentric area. The region strives to lead China's transition to industrial low-carbon reorientation. Achieving this goal necessitates cross-sectoral strategic development solutions that consider the intricate interconnections between cities within the region. In this study, we developed a novel MRIO-based multi-objective optimization framework to address the challenge of reshaping the region's carbon productivity. This framework explores the optimal planning pathways for multi-city industrial restructuring to achieve a more efficient regional low-carbon transition. Our findings suggest that reshaping the regional industrial structure would propel economic prosperity across all affiliated cities, with advanced manufacturing and modern service sectors having the potential to contribute over 75 % of the region's GDP by 2035. The industrial restructuring would present opportunities for attaining the goal of reaching peak carbon emissions by 2030 and peak energy consumption by 2035 with higher production efficiency. Our study provides valuable insights into the development of industrial restructuring and decarbonization pathways for the PRD and other megaregions. • A novel MRIO-based multi-objective optimization framework is developed. • This framework explores productivity-driven industrial restructuring within the PRD cities. • Reshaping carbon productivity enhances an efficient low-carbon transition. • Promoting industrial restructuring contributes to achieving peak carbon emissions by 2030.