The thickening of the active layer will negate the promoting effect on vegetation productivity in permafrost regions

Abstract Ongoing and widespread permafrost degradation potentially affects terrestrial ecosystems, whereas the changes in its effects on vegetation under climate change remain unclear. Here, we estimated the relative contribution of progressive active layer thickness (ALT) increases to vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) in the northern permafrost region during the 21st century. Our results revealed that ALT changes accounted for 40% of the GPP increase in the permafrost region during 2000–2021, with amplified effects observed in late growing season (September–October) (43.2%–45.4%) and was especially notable in tundra ecosystems (51%–52.6%). However, projections indicated that this contribution could decrease considerably in the coming decades. Model simulations suggest that once ALT increments (relative to the 2001–2021 baseline) reach approximately 90 cm between 2035 and 2045, the promoting effect of ALT increase on vegetation growth may disappear. These findings provide crucial insights for accurately modelling and predicting ecosystem carbon dynamics in northern high latitudinal regions.