Measurement and Dynamic Evolution of Digitalization Level in Provincial Agriculture in China and Its Impact on the Income Gap between Urban and Rural Residents

本文基于2013~2022年省域面板数据，构建农业数字化发展指标体系，运用熵值法测度其水平，探究其动态演进及预测，并通过固定效应模型分析其对城乡居民收入差距的影响。结果显示，我国农业数字化自2013年起经历初期扩展与结构调整，受疫情冲击后韧性增强，但区域差异显著，呈“东强西弱、南快北慢”格局。通过基准回归、稳健性检验、中介与非线性检验发现，农业数字化显著缩小城乡收入差距，且存在产业结构升级的中介效应与非线性“倒V”门槛效应，低水平时扩大差距，突破阈值后抑制扩张。基于结论，提出统筹区域协调发展、实施数字跃迁战略、完善阈值调控机制等政策建议，旨在优化数字资源配置，推动城乡要素公平共享，助力实现共同富裕。Based on the provincial panel data from 2013 to 2022, this paper constructs an indicator system for agricultural digital development, uses entropy method to measure its level, explores its dynamic evolution and prediction, and analyzes its impact on the income gap between urban and rural residents through a fixed-effect model. The results show that China’s agricultural digitalization has experienced initial expansion and structural adjustment since 2013, and its resilience has been enhanced after the impact of the epidemic, but the regional differences are significant, showing a pattern of “strong in the east and weak in the west, fast in the south and slow in the north”. Through benchmark regression, robustness test, and intermediary and nonlinear test, it is found that agricultural digitalization significantly reduces the urban-rural income gap, and there is the intermediary effect of industrial structure upgrading and the nonlinear “inverted V” threshold effect, which enlarges the gap at a low level and inhibits expansion after breaking the threshold. Based on the conclusions, the paper puts forward policy suggestions such as coordinating regional development, implementing the digital transition strategy, and improving the threshold regulation mechanism, in order to optimize the allocation of digital resources, promote the fair sharing of urban and rural factors, and help achieve common prosperity.