A techno-economic assessment of carbon dioxide removal pathways via biochemical conversion of lignocellulose to biofuels and bioplastics

Biomass carbon removal and storage (BiCRS) is a promising pathway to mitigate climate change via large scale removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). We modeled several fermentation technologies, producing a variety of bioproducts from lignocellulosic feedstocks, to understand their levelized cost of CO2 removal under multiple scenarios. Lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are accounted to provide cradle-to-grave estimates of carbon intensity (CI). We did not account for the avoided fossil CO2 emissions from the use of biofuels in our CO2 removal cost calculations, because avoided emissions do not contribute to CO2 removal. The main products from the fermentation technologies we modeled include renewable diesel, ethanol, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and polyethylene (PE), with co-products including CO2, adipic acid, steam, and electricity. PE, depending on its end-of-life management, can serve as a form of biogenic carbon storage. PE has the potential to remove 1.2–1.5 tCO2 per dry t-biomass, whereas biofuels have the potential to remove 0.3–0.9 tCO2 per dry t-biomass, indicating that PE production is a more efficient method of carbon removal. We quantify costs of CO2 removal to be $60 – $675 per metric tCO2 removed across the various fermentation pathways. Under the scenarios analyzed, bioplastic production from lignocellulosic biomass is a more cost-effective route to CO2 removal than biofuel production, with costs of CO2 removal via bioplastics being 50–90 % lower than that of biofuels. Future research should explore the potential benefits and drawbacks of expanding bioplastic production for large-scale CO2 removal.