Import competition and stock price crash risk

Abstract We investigate how globalization‐induced import competition affects stock price crash risk. Import competition increases price pressure and reduces profit margins, prompting managers to withhold negative information, resulting in higher crash risk. Based on a sample of US manufacturing firms from 1974 to 2019, we find that firms whose products face declining shipping costs experience increased stock price crash risk. To address endogeneity, we employ a difference‐in‐differences design centered on China's 2000 Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status. Our findings indicate that a stock's tail risk depends not only on firm and managerial characteristics but also on heterogeneous exposure to macroeconomic trends such as globalization.