The Prevalence and Toll of Goat Theft in Jamaica

Jamaica has a reputation as a high-crime country, but it is less-widely known that one of the costliest crimes in the country is agricultural theft and the violence that often accompanies it. Theft of crops and livestock affects the vast majority of producers directly and indirectly leads to costly changes to production or protection measures to avoid theft. We argue that this suppresses growth in the agricultural sector, particularly for goat farmers. Based on a survey of goat farmers in Jamaica, this paper explores patterns in the timing and location of thefts. In our data, 60 percent of farmers had at least one animal stolen between 2016 and 2018 and the number of goats kept declined over the same period. There are strong seasonal patterns and spatial patterns of theft. First, we find that the likelihood of theft increases when there are multiple incidents of theft within the same month but with relatively few animals stolen. This is suggestive of local crime sprees. Second, when a large-scale theft of many animals from a single farmer occurs in an area, the likelihood of theft from nearby farmers decreases. This suggests that large, conspicuous events raise awareness levels and deter other thieves. Finally, the paper discusses the importance of the market for goat meat in Jamaica and the market implications of theft for farmers and retailers.