Dynamic State Transitions of Taiwan’s Ecological Footprint: A Markov Switching Model Approach to Environmental Sustainability and Policy Innovation

With population growth, the demand for goods continues to increase. However, the land required for goods production and waste absorption is constrained by supply limitations. This study uses statistics from the Taiwanese government to calculate the ecological footprint from 1991 to 2017. The results show that the ecological footprint, calculated across 23 items in four categories-food, timber, housing and facilities, and energy bio productive land-has gradually increased over time. To analyse the dynamic changes in Taiwan’s ecological footprint, the Markov Switching Model is used to estimate transition probabilities. The total per capita ecological footprint increased from 5.0752 global hectares per person in 1991 to 7.7237 global hectares per person in 2017. The ecological footprint is divided into high and low states. The average value for the high ecological footprint state is 1.4320 global hectares per person, with the Markov chain length ranging between 1.0339 and 6.0574 years, and the probability of remaining in the high ecological footprint state is 0.3064. The average value for the low ecological footprint state is 0.6003 global hectares per person, with the Markov chain length ranging between 2.1864 and 34.6997 years, and the probability of remaining in the low ecological footprint state is 0.8634. The government should focus on the continuously increasing ecological footprint and address the associated pressures on environmental resources and bio productive land by proposing mitigation strategies.