Where’d You Go, Ohio: Progressive Ohio Ballot Initiative Passage in a Republican Aligned State

We investigate the effects of cosmopolitan and traditional county features on the opposition to three successful liberal state-wide initiatives on abortion and recreational marijuana using county-level data. Cosmopolitan/traditional variables include urban/rural living patterns, college graduates, average income and religiosity while control variables include turnout, poverty, race, region, and union support. We observe the results of these three elections to see the relationship between vote shares and factors such as income, education, rural/urban, and religiosity, controlling for other factors. Utilizing OLS and GAM regression models, our results provide support for our hypothesis that there is a relationship between cosmopolitanism and votes for the progressive stance and traditionalism and votes for the conservative stance. Cosmopolitanism and traditionalism are also related to party divergence, as expressed in variation between county votes for Donald Trump in 2020 and support for Ohio’s ballot initiatives in 2023. The regression also supports our expectation that the coalitions for the progressive stance in all three of Ohio’s 2023 votes in question are distinct groups. Our results suggest that while progressive issues can be successful at the ballot box, the coalitions and circumstances required for victory are difficult to come by in partisan elections.