Energy demand prediction and scenario analysis for vehicle traction: A bottom-up approach applied to the italian railway system

The transportation sector, accounting for 23 % of Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions, is a key focus in the pursuit of the EU Green Deal’s target of net-zero emissions by 2050. The railway system plays a strategic role in this context, offering a green and cost-effective solution for passengers and freight transport. Enhancements in railway capacity, rectification of interregional infrastructure disparities, high-speed network expansion, digitization, and improvements in freight transport are expected to significantly impact the energy sector and other transport modes. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of energy consumption in the Italian railway system, utilizing a bottom-up deterministic modeling approach based on an extended version of the Davis equation to estimate energy demand for railway traction. Real data from Rete Ferroviaria Italiana (RFI) are used to apply the model across the Italian railway network. The estimated net annual energy consumption for traction is 5137 GWh, with high-speed trains accounting for 20.5 % of this demand, despite representing only 5.5 % of the network length. The overall energy demand for the entire railway sector in Italy is estimated at 5594 GWh annually, including grid losses and fuel conversion efficiencies. Scenario analyses reveal that expanding high-speed lines by 35 % results in a 25.4 % increase in energy consumption, while increasing train speed from 200 to 260 km/h leads to a 7.8 % rise. These findings highlight the trade-offs between network expansion, speed improvements, and energy efficiency, providing valuable insights for sustainable railway planning and informed decision-making towards a greener, more efficient network. • Deterministic Energy Modeling: A bottom-up deterministic model estimates traction energy demand for Italy's railways using RFI data. • Energy Consumption Estimates: Estimated net annual traction energy is 5137 GWh, with high-speed trains using 20.5 % of this energy. • Scenario Analysis: Expanding high-speed lines increase energy use by 25.4 %, while increasing speed raises it by 7.8 %. • Policy Insights: Findings support sustainable railway planning, balancing infrastructure growth with energy efficiency.