Research on the Influence of Low-carbon Pilot Policies on Urban Green Total Factor Productivity

China’s low-carbon pilot cities have been implemented for many years. The goal of “dual carbon” has become the strategic transformation of China’s economic and social green development, with new historical importance provided to the construction of low-carbon cities once again. Based on the panel data of 284 prefecture cities and above from 2007 to 2021, this paper used the super-efficiency SBM model combined with the Globe-Malmquist-Luenberger index to measure green total factor productivity. In addition, it further constructed a multi-phase DID model to conduct an empirical study on how low-carbon pilot policies affect the green total factor productivity of cities in China. It shows that the significant growth of urban green total factor productivity is still apparent after adding control variables in turn under favorable policies. In the robustness test, the treatment group and the control group satisfy the parallel trend assumption. After using PSM-DID to test, it was found that the effect of the pilot policy was still significant. According to the mechanism test results, the industrial structure optimization mechanism and green technology innovation mechanism are crucial engines to promote the growth of urban green total factor productivity. This study provides some empirical support and practical reference for the construction of low-carbon cities in China