Research on the Impact of VAT Credit Refund Policy on the Quality of Human Capital in Manufacturing Enterprises

党的二十大报告提出要加快建设现代化经济体系，为了推进经济的平稳运行，近年来国家不断出台各种“减税降费”的政策，留抵退税成为了减税降费政策的重要举措之一。本文以我国大规模留抵退税改革为背景，基于运用双重差分方法考察了增值税留抵退税这一重要战略举措对制造业企业人力资本质量的影响。研究发现，增值税留抵退税显著提高了制造业企业人力资本质量，机制分析表明，增值税留抵退税通过缓解企业融资约束优化了制造业企业人力资本质量。异质性分析发现，对于大规模企业、非国有企业、技术密集度高制造业企业，增值税留抵退税的促进效用更加突出，同时为进一步优化完善增值税制度以及深化供给侧结构性改革提供了重要经验证据。The 20th Party Congress report proposed to speed up the construction of a modern economic system. In recent years, the state has continuously introduced a variety of “tax reduction and fee reduction” policies to promote the smooth operation of the economy. VAT credit refund has become one of the important measures of tax reduction and fee reduction policies. Based on the background of China’s large-scale tax credit reform, this paper investigates the impact of the value-added tax credit refund on the quality of human capital of manufacturing enterprises based on the method of differential difference. The research finds that value-added tax credit refund significantly improves the quality of human capital of manufacturing enterprises. Mechanism analysis shows that value-added tax credit refund optimizes the quality of human capital of manufacturing enterprises by easing the financing constraints of enterprises. Heterogeneity analysis found that for large-scale enterprises, non-state-owned enterprises, and technology-intensive manufacturing enterprises, the promotion effect of value-added tax credit refund is more prominent, and at the same time, it provides important empirical evidence for further optimizing and improving the VAT system and deepening the supply-side structural reform.