Redefining Olympic Horizons: A Quantitative Framework for Evaluating and Prioritizing Future Sports Disciplines

Our team developed a hierarchical analytical model (Hierarchical Analysis Methodology) to evaluate SDEs based on the criteria of popularity, accessibility, gender equality, sustainability, inclusiveness, relevance, innovation, safety, and fair play as specified by the Olympic Committee to inform decision-making on future Olympic Games programs. The model provides a data-driven framework to ensure the selected SDEs are consistent with the Olympic values. To test the model, we evaluated four SDEs that have been added in recent years: Boxing, Cricket, BMX Freestyle Cycling, and Karate, as well as four traditional Olympic sports: Racketball, Judo, Canoe Sprint, and Archery. Additionally, we conducted a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of our model. We found high sensitivity in Safety, Fair Play, and Relevance Innovation, indicating the model's ability to prioritize sports aligned with key Olympic values. However, lower sensitivity in Popularity and Gender Equity suggests a potential limitation, which could be addressed in future refinements. Based on the results, we recommend Breaking, Equestrian Driving, and Rugby Union as new additions for the 2032 Olympics in Brisbane. Breaking is the top choice due to its high appeal among younger audiences. For future consideration in the 2036 Olympics, Water Motorsports and Field Handball show potential as they align well with evolving trends and inclusivity goals.