A Scientific Framework for Evaluating Future Olympic Sports Based on AHP-EWM and TOPSIS-VIKOR

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) aims to implement a scientifically rigorous framework to select emerging sports for the 2032 Brisbane Olympic Games. This paper integrates the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Entropy Weight Method (EWM) to calculate the weights of evaluation criteria and employs a dual-model approach combining TOPSIS and VIKOR for multidimensional analysis. A multi-criteria evaluation system comprising 15 indicators is constructed, using a combination of AHP and EWM to calculate the comprehensive weights of the indicators and applying dual TOPSIS and VIKOR models to quantitatively assess various sports. Subsequently, the model is used to evaluate emerging sports such as skateboarding, surfing, and break dancing, as well as traditional disciplines like athletics, swimming, and gymnastics, toto verify the model's effectiveness. The results show that emerging sports score lower, while conventional sports achieve higher scores, thereby validating the reliability of the proposed model. This paper further identifies suitable emerging sports for the 2032 Olympics, including seasonal bowling, street basketball, and e-sports, with evaluation scores of 0.1636, 0.3630, and 0.4734, respectively. A forward-looking analysis is also conducted on potential sports for the 2036 Olympics, such as drone racing, robot competitions, and virtual sports. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis is performed by adjusting the weights of the evaluation criteria, revealing that reducing carbon footprint and increasing national diversity has a significant impact on the SDE score and requires careful calibration. At the same time, the influence of other factors is relatively minor. This paper provides scientific recommendations to the IOC to support the continuous innovation and development of the Olympic Games.