ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE MANAGEMENT IN AFRICA

The scientific article analyzes in detail the performance indicators of large-scale health systems in African countries and develops an econometric model for managing infectious diseases in African countries, estimating malaria mortality depending on influencing factors: population size, number of doctors, number of hospital beds, number of confirmed cases of malaria, tuberculosis mortality and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) mortality. It has been shown that the greatest correlation is observed between malaria mortality and tuberculosis mortality, and the lowest is between malaria mortality and HIV mortality. Moreover, the number of confirmed HIV cases has a negative impact on malaria mortality (the Pearson pair correlation coefficient is –0,034). The proposed toolkit makes it possible to track changes in the quantitative values of the input parameters of the model, continuously monitor the situation and provide managers of the healthcare system with timely and reliable info rmation for making managerial decisions.