On the edge of survival: The fragile fate of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in central Anatolia, Türkiye under climate change

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) is an essential species for biodiversity and ecosystem services in Türkiye, yet it is becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change, especially in climatically marginal areas such as Central Anatolia. This study used MaxEnt modeling along with CHELSA V2.1 climate projections to evaluate the current and future distribution of Scots pine under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1 2.6, SSP3 7.0, SSP5 8.5) projected for the year 2100. The key climatic factors influencing habitat suitability include precipitation seasonality (Bio15) and temperature seasonality (Bio7). The results show that while 34% of Central Anatolia is currently suitable for Scots pine, habitat suitability could decline by 91% under SSP5 8.5, leaving only 4% of the region viable for the species by 2100. This significant reduction highlights the uncertain future of Scots pine populations in the area. Unlike previous research, this study provides a high-resolution analysis that incorporates fine-scale environmental and topographical variables, emphasizing the importance of mid-altitude refugia as potential climate shelters. Aligning with Sustainable Development Goal 15 (SDG15), this study underscores the need to incorporate climate projections into forest management practices. The findings contribute to a broader understanding of climate-induced range shifts and inform adaptive conservation strategies for other vulnerable tree species in semiarid regions.