More than modelling: Building trust for positive change in water resources management

Hydrologic modelling plays a vital role in water resources management but often falls short of achieving the positive change modelers envision. In this position paper we argue that a key contributing factor is the lack of trust and shared understanding among modelers, decision-makers, and the public. Models need to be trusted first—a social challenge as well as a technical one. Through three case studies—involving groundwater development, a national-scale runoff model, and a declining lake ecosystem—we analyze the interactions between technical modelling, stakeholder engagement, and policy outcomes, drawing on principles from both hydrologic and social sciences. We recommend that hydrologic modelers foster transparency, balance model authority with flexibility, and tailor stakeholder engagement to overall project needs. Implementing these recommendations will enhance the legitimacy of hydrologic models, increasing the likelihood of achieving positive, sustainable change in water resource systems. • Hydrologic models alone do not lead to wise decisions and positive change. • Models need to be trusted first – a social challenge as well as a technical one. • We examine three cases where modeling has had limitations for decision-making. • We recommend ideas to improve model credibility and application.