Proposal of an epistemological model for teaching Bayesian inference

Abstract The teaching of Bayesian statistics at school is characterized by promoting the meaning of subjective probability as a calculation algorithm. Regarding the limited development of meanings at school, the history of mathematics is a source of data that provides epistemic elements that configure new meanings about mathematical notions. Therefore, to characterize the stochastic activity that underlies Bayesian problems and the context associated with their genesis, a documentary study is proposed through qualitative content analysis from the socio-epistemological perspective. The results show an organization of stochastic practices directed by estimating the ‘true value’ of the unknown parameter, from which an epistemological reference model is built as a proposal to reorient the didactic intervention of Bayesian inference.