The impacts of land use/land cover changes on ecosystem service values in coastal lagoon landscapes of the 1017 Ramsar site, Benin

Understanding the impact of land use/land cover (LU/LC) changes on ecosystem services (ES) is essential for sustainable land management. This study aims to assess past (2000–2022) and future (2022–2052) LU/LC changes and their effects on ecosystem service values (ESVs) in the coastal lagoon landscapes of the 1017 Ramsar site in Benin. By combining socio-economic surveys, remote sensing analysis, the benefit transfer method, and the Cellular Automata (CA) model for future projections, we quantified LU/LC dynamics and their implications for ES. Results indicate a significant expansion of built-up areas (+122.46 %) and mangrove forests (+15.66 %) from 2000 to 2022, accompanied by declines in swamp forests (-14.17 %), forest plantations (-57.14%), shrublands (-17.18 %), and farmland/fallows (-26.02 %). The CA model predicts continued urban expansion, with settlements increasing by 33.61 % from 2022 to 2052 at the expense of natural ecosystems. These LU/LC changes have led to a decline in total ESVs, from 145.5 million US$ in 2000 to 140.26 million US$ in 2022, with further reductions projected to 136.18 million US$ by 2052. The most impacted services include recreation and tourism (-3.44 million US$) and food production (-1.68 million US$), while the maintenance of genetic diversity shows a slight increase (+1.15 million US$). Sensitivity analysis (CS range: 0–0.51) confirms the robustness of ESV estimates and highlights the vulnerability of water bodies, swamp forests, and mangrove forests. These findings provide critical insights for policymakers to develop sustainable land management strategies to mitigate ES losses in Benin's coastal lagoon landscapes.