Intraregional External Relations of East Asian Countries: Trends and Prospects

The article provides an analysis of trends in trade and economic interactions between East Asian countries from 2000 to 2020, with an emphasis on the transformation of trade relations between the Big Three countries of North-East Asia (NEA-3) and two subregions: the five largest economies of the region (NEA-3, Taiwan (China) and Hong Kong (China) and the ASEAN countries. It is shown that while maintaining a high degree of trade interdependence between the countries of the region, there was a decrease in the intensity of intraregional exports and imports mainly due to a change in the model of China’s participation in production networks and a tendency to reduce the fragmentation of production in the region due to increased productivity and technological change. In 2000–2020, there was an increase in the importance of ASEAN in the intraregional trade of China and the Republic of Korea. The importance of the subregion for Japan decreased in the late 2010s. Despite the fact that the volume of China’s trade with the region increased and a high share of intraregional trade in China’s total trade turnover remained, there was a reorientation of China’s trade flows from the region to other countries, as well as a sharp decrease in the trade intensity with the largest economies in the region. The main factors influencing the structure of trade and economic interactions between East Asian countries at present are identified: increased tensions between China and the United States, which are the most important partners of the countries in the region, exogenous shocks, and the transfer of production networks from China to ASEAN countries. Global trends (strengthening the environmental agenda, reduction of production networks, etc.) that may ultimately influence the structure of intraregional economic relations are identified