Spatio-temporal variability of sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) yield in relation to edaphoclimatic factors in the central region of Brazil

Context Production of sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) in Brazil holds a significant global position. However, it faces challenges in yield optimization due to unfavorable edaphoclimatic conditions and technological limitations. Aim This study aimed to correlate the spatio-temporal variability of sugarcane yield with edaphoclimatic conditions in the central region of Brazil. Methods This study included 11 sugarcane producing municipalities in central region of Brazil. It utilized 47 years of historical data on yield, climate, and soil. To isolate the climatic effects on yield (Yr), technological trends (YrNT) were removed via simple linear regression adjustment, followed by cluster analysis. Key results Four groups of Yr and YrNT were identified. Group 1 exhibited the highest average yield (77 Mg ha−1), while Group 4 had the lowest (47 Mg ha−1), with a yield gap of approximately 10.2 Mg ha−1. Municipalities with the highest Yr averages were in Clusters 3 and 4 for climate, and Clusters 2 and 3 for soil. Conclusions The higher occurrence of anomalies lower than 1.0 σ for climate Group 3 of YrNT indicates that unfavorable climatic conditions combined with inadequate production technologies can lead to significant yield losses (26% of years). Evaluating sugarcane yield by considering crop cycles and edaphoclimatic factors before technological trends can provide a more accurate insight into yield variability. Implications Understanding the relationship between edaphoclimatic factors and sugarcane yield variation can guide targeted interventions, aiding in the development of strategies to mitigate losses in sugarcane farming.