Exploring the relationship between air travel demand and tourism in Thailand: An ARDL approach

The aviation industry has undergone significant changes due to air deregulation and liberalization, which have enabled competition among airlines and provided them with greater flexibility to determine airfare, routes, and capacity. These changes have led to increased air travel, benefiting the tourism industry in numerous countries, including Thailand. This research paper examines the relationship between air travel demand and tourism in Thailand, while assessing the economic advantages of tourism for different nationalities using a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) dynamic framework. The study analyses data from 53 tourist origins, categorized into seven regions—North Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Oceania, the Middle East and Africa, Europe, and the Americas—covering the period from 2012 to 2020. The findings suggest that air passenger demand significantly contributes to Thailand’s economy, leading to long-term benefits such as increased job opportunities, higher wages, and greater tourism receipts. Tourists from North Asia provide the most substantial long-term economic benefits, highlighting the need for a well-balanced strategy that targets various regions for sustainable tourism development.