The Full Lifecycle Evolution Model of Accidents: A Case Study of Underground Metal Mines in China

Analyzing the mechanisms of accidents is essential for clarifying the accident evolution process, devising preventive measures, and achieving proactive accident management. To address the potential issues in existing accident causation theories, such as the unclear distinction between direct causes and incomplete accident evolution pathways in enterprise-level accident prevention analysis, this study systematically reviewed the elements involved in safety management activities and their interrelationships. We identified the central role of human factors in the accident evolution process and developed a full lifecycle evolution model for industrial accidents, which begins with hazard identification and follows a safety management logic as its primary framework. This model provides a clear pathway for constructing enterprise-level risk control lists and accident prevention schemes. The model’s effectiveness was validated through its application to China’s underground metal mining industry. Drawing on Chinese laws and regulations as well as accident investigation reports, this study identifies 11 common types of accidents in underground metal mines and maps their evolution pathways from a complex systems perspective. Quantitative data from 61 accident reports were used to pinpoint the core factors and critical pathways leading to these various accidents. The study also analyzes prevention strategies and proposes new countermeasures to control the propagation of accident risks. Practical applications of the model demonstrate that emphasizing human factors enhances the effectiveness and accuracy of enterprise-level accident analysis and risk management.