Forecasting hydroelectric power generation in the European Union using a new grey oscillation model with a fractional order accumulation operator

Historical hydropower data of the European Union (EU) are characterized by limited size, uncertainty, and oscillation. In this study, a smoothing operator is integrated into a discrete grey prediction model featuring a fractional-order accumulation operator. This integration is specifically tailored to tackle the challenges posed by these data characteristics in the context of EU hydropower forecasting. By optimizing the model parameters through the genetic algorithm, the newly developed grey oscillation prediction model demonstrates remarkable accuracy when dealing with diverse oscillation sequences. The model forecasts EU hydropower generation in 2030 generation to be 430.64 TWH, a 1.2-fold increase from 2021, indicating modest growth. This prediction highlights the need for strategic measures to ensure the sustainable development of the hydropower sector, contributing to the EU’s energy stability and socioeconomic progress.