Numerical calculation method for the probability of target damage caused by fragment swarm under random retention time series

Addressing the issue of uncertainty in calculating the damage effectiveness of aerial maneuvering targets due to the random intersection with warhead fragment clusters formed by projectile proximity explosions, this paper puts forward a numerical calculation method of the aerial maneuvering target damage probability under the intersection between the warhead fragment group and the target with random dwell time sequence (RDTS) characteristics. Leveraging the random scattering characteristics of warhead fragment clusters and incorporating the vulnerability characteristics of the aerial maneuvering target, a model for calculating the probability of hitting and damaging an aerial maneuvering target with a warhead fragment cluster from a single projectile's explosive is established. Factors related to the random dwell time of the target possibly falling into the effective damage area of the warhead fragment cluster from the projectile's proximity explosion are introduced, resulting in the development of a model for calculating the damage probability of an aerial maneuvering target under RDTS. In addition, we provide a mathematical description of the statistical characteristics of the probability of damage. Through simulation and example calculation and analysis, the results demonstrate that this method can accurately reflect the actual damage effectiveness of warhead fragment clusters formed by projectile proximity explosion on the aerial maneuvering target in a random scattering state, offering a novel theoretical approach for calculating the damage effectiveness of highly maneuverable targets in the future.