A Scenario-Based Approach to Using Electric Vehicle Batteries in Virtual Power Plants: Insights from Environmental, Social, and Governance and Monte Carlo Simulations

The intensified global focus on the energy transition and sustainability has increased the drive to leverage electric vehicle (EV) batteries as virtual power plant (VPP) resources. However, uncertainties and governance factors associated with this integration have not been systematically researched. This study aimed to identify and evaluate the key uncertainties surrounding the deployment of EV batteries in VPPs and propose strategic responses from an ESG perspective. We adopted a mixed-methods approach using scenario planning to identify critical uncertainties. The approach included quantitative assessments using Monte Carlo simulations and a scenario matrix to incorporate ESG elements into future projections. The findings highlighted economic value volatility (E: 13.37%), employment creation potential and sustainability (S: 10.68%), and increased transparency requirements (G: 8.60%) as the most influential uncertainty factors based on the simulation results. These variables formed the basis for selecting three core drivers for scenario construction. Four distinct scenarios were identified. By proposing tailored response strategies for each scenario, this study suggests that the long-term sustainability of EV batteries and VPP industries can be bolstered in various potential future environments. Integrating ESG factors into a scenario analysis helps decision-making in industries characterized by high uncertainty. The study offers strategies that embed ESG considerations to support the sustainability of EV batteries and VPP sectors and provides valuable insights for shaping policies, industrial strategies, and corporate ESG initiatives.