Pathway Simulation and Evaluation of Carbon Neutrality in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region Based on the LEAP Model

Facing the intensifying global climate change pressures and China’s strategic commitment to carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, this study focuses on the multiple challenges faced by the Sichuan-Chongqing region, the economic core of southwest China, in optimizing its energy structure, controlling carbon emissions, and exploring sustainable development pathways. The study uses the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) model to simulate energy demand and carbon emission trends under different policies and innovative technologies by constructing various scenarios. By conducting a comparative analysis of the LEAP model’s projection results under four scenarios (baseline scenario, alleviative scenario, low-carbon scenario, and high-efficiency low-carbon scenario), this study quantifies the energy demand and carbon emission pathways in the Sichuan-Chongqing region. The results show that optimizing the energy structure and improving energy efficiency are key to achieving carbon neutrality in the Sichuan-Chongqing region. Under the high-efficiency low-carbon scenario, the region is expected to reach peak energy consumption by 2050 and achieve a significant reduction in carbon emissions by 2060, with emissions dropping to 58.1% of the total emissions in 2050 and falling below 25% of the base year’s emissions. The industry sector is expected to account for 77.6% of total emissions. This study highlights the positive impact of widespread clean energy adoption on carbon reduction and demonstrates the importance of industrial restructuring and low-carbon technological innovation, among other green technologies, in promoting economic and environmental sustainability. Furthermore, by quantitatively analyzing carbon emission pathways under different scenarios, the study provides quantitative support and policy references for Sichuan-Chongqing and other regions to implement more scientific emission reduction measures and carbon neutrality pathway planning. The findings contribute to advancing regional collaborative governance, enhancing the scientific rigor of policy implementation, and fostering global climate governance cooperation, ultimately contributing to the coordinated and sustainable development of the ecological environment, economy, and society, embodying the “Sichuan-Chongqing efforts”.