A Spatial Perspective of Birth Delay in Croatia: Is Rural Population Decline a Limiting Factor of National Fertility Rates?

The purpose of this study is to explore urban-rural differences in fertility levels and timing in Croatia, and to explore the spatial evolution of birth delay. Data from 556 local units at three time points were used. The units were classified into cities, towns and suburbs, and rural areas. For comparison, data from Croatian regions and European countries were utilised. The research is based on descriptive statistics, spatial statistics, and geovisualisations. A specific methodological framework relying on the ratio of age- specific fertility rates of older and younger age groups was employed to monitor birth timing. In the period 2001–2011, urban-rural fertility level differences decreased due to increased births in urban areas at older ages. In the period 2011–2021, with the rise of later births in rural areas, differences increased again. The Zagreb region, cities, Istria, the Croatian Littoral, and Dalmatia lead in later births. Urban-rural differences in cohort fertility are greater than those in period fertility. Further shifting towards reducing the proportion of rural population could gradually have a negative impact on the national fertility level.